Hillel Gershuni

This time: political post something, that deals with the party not very interesting to me, with primaries that interests me, and I do not support any of the candidates it. But last spin, from the school of Hershkowitz, irritated me the most. So: notice published today in "primary source" by the candidate to head the Jewish Home, Minister-multi-Daniel Hershkowitz, led photo story on Channel 7, and gave her the title: "Survey function: no winner in the first round, Hershkovitz wins in the second round. " Sounds promising, right? Here's the news:
Let's start from the beginning. First of all, it is not a survey. Of these 50,000 501 function. By which method chosen them? Fate Gra? Anyone whose first begins Wednesday, where his family starts in on? Surveys conducted by survey institutes cyber monday deals "real", who know the methods and data segmentation can stand behind their findings. Here it is in "Tlaul". Company surveys? Not at all. It is a company that operates representatives callers cyber monday deals people, cyber monday deals a variety of issues. One of the services it offers is "quantitative research cyber monday deals services leading research cyber monday deals bodies economy." That is, a body of research (eg, polling) may use the services of the company's technical to call are reviewed. Tlaul itself is not a professional body such. For example, a letter of recommendation (the only one) that has in this respect is the author of "Market Watch", which is a "market research and public opinion polls", and uses the services of Tlaul. Okay, this is not a survey, but imposing Cube. What next? Let us assume that the data are accurate. The rate of "not yet decided" and who refuse to meet in the first round is 32% .slis function! What do those 17 thousand function? cyber monday deals We have no idea. Because the difference, according to the Survey ", the Hershkowitz and Orlev is 4% - usually range margin of error - it can give no ability to know if Hershkowitz indeed rise to the second stage. Oh, yes. The sampling error. There is no data on it. And that for the simple reason Sltlaul, as noted above, not a member surveys, and stated what we do is just a roll of the dice (Assume that no one is "handled the data" in favor of inviting the survey - you can tell that it Hershkowitz - and then even companies completed professional know skew the survey data way I see commissioning), there is no ability or pretense make herself a professional survey with the segmentation of sampling error is well defined. cyber monday deals So on. If your candidate did not pass, who will vote in the second round? Flow with the survey, and we assume that Bennett and Hershkowitz went to the second round. Again, there is a huge amount of people who have no idea who they will vote. But beyond that, we do not know who these "have no idea". Do they belong primarily to the camps Bennett or Hershkowitz (then it does not matter, that their candidates rose for the second round)? Who say "will not vote" are supporters Bennett, Hershkowitz or Orlev? There is no data. After all, what we want is the segmentation of voters Orlev, the losing candidate cyber monday deals in the first round by assumption (also according to this same survey, Bennett certain costs for the second round, and then if Hershkowitz lose, it does not interest us, Hershko's campaign staff). Again, there is no data. So some 23% say they would vote Hershkowitz if their candidate does not win are voters Bennett, and some are voters Orlev? We do not have the slightest idea. "It does not say on the clock", the words of poet. But let's assume for a moment that everything was gold, a scientific survey, great and pious. Enter another matter: surveys of primary medium parties equal trash. They have no value, except for fans of statistics. "Forward" is a good reminder to the point. The first dealing Mofaz watched surveys for a decisive victory for Livni. In fact, she won the gap of individual voices. Second addressing journalists have learned a lesson, and more use of surveys. cyber monday deals Those who still available cyber monday deals Tal Schneider was a political blog "Platoon". According to the survey, people took a walk. By reality - Well, we know where to is today. Actually, you know? Because cyber monday deals I do not. And why? A variety of reasons. Public function is relatively small, small statistical fluctuations become large. Much depends on who is going to vote and those who have no power and he remained at home. Who is more organized and who is not. Who brought "functional boxes" (yes, even the Jewish home has such things) or less. In short, there is no pollsters what to look for such parties. Only users in the polls, candidates themselves, as a PR in their favor, that the public does not really understand cyber monday deals all these things. So why not take a ride on his back. Oh, by the way. Bennett's men probably were upset Survey "of Hershkowitz, And here already posted a new survey, this time conducted by the Smith Institute (It polling true at least). According to this survey, Bennett takes the elections walking, no second round or anything, and Hershko lags far behind, with only 11% who say they would vote for him. So it may be more serious survey, but as mentioned, also it can not be taken too seriously (something, big deal: there are no "do not know". That is the distribution of voters is among those who said they know who they will vote. In short, here too the data are well thought out partial, given no other important data. Another survey should be thrown in the trash). And final note: Remember what the Ministry of Hershkowitz? Office of Science. and expertise of the esteemed professor? mathematics. So the Minister of Science, Professor of Mathematics, allows himself to publish nonsense "scientific" such . how modern cyber monday deals trackers say? Here I suspected.
Hillel Gershuni
Do not sell chametz!
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